Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.831413 0.971626 1.128025 1.315398 1.533808 1.780405 2.080061
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.601557 0.785602 1.014367 1.319606 1.716408 2.215149 2.890427
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.472732 0.668158 0.930515 1.308458 1.839391 2.559557 3.612558
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.389351 0.586841 0.869081 1.301800 1.949199 2.883368 4.337263
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.333840 0.531908 0.830684 1.314078 2.077710 3.239998 5.149086
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.278433 0.466224 0.763514 1.268221 2.105241 3.441453 5.744531
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.260449 0.456281 0.780221 1.354791 2.350750 4.011131 7.001089
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.223628 0.408568 0.727219 1.315857 2.378933 4.223915 7.684103
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.192306 0.365418 0.675286 1.269893 2.385758 4.396554 8.313829
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.167108 0.329520 0.630876 1.230268 2.396546 4.573970 8.970578
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.153560 0.313614 0.620870 1.253104 2.526123 4.983824 10.117463
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.148416 0.313389 0.640502 1.335686 2.781756 5.663906 11.881295
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.138395 0.302277 0.638053 1.375381 2.960525 6.223422 13.495705
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.126271 0.285082 0.621082 1.382933 3.074534 6.668269 14.938040
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.114069 0.265854 0.597035 1.371427 3.144979 7.028707 16.244149
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.103730 0.249284 0.576442 1.364459 3.223922 7.416391 17.662852
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.096000 0.237641 0.565262 1.377327 3.349574 7.923385 19.425375
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.085152 0.216942 0.530391 1.329268 3.324610 8.080382 20.376182
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.083866 0.219670 0.551444 1.419995 3.648637 9.102198 23.583304
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.075222 0.202455 0.521563 1.379192 3.638713 9.312312 24.776647
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.067176 0.185648 0.490490 1.331020 3.603223 9.453828 25.811877
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.060339 0.171113 0.463352 1.289493 3.579524 9.622183 26.941712
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.057105 0.166055 0.460531 1.313426 3.735919 10.281877 29.501599